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THE NATION'S HOUSING market, in- cluding its residential remodeling and kitchen/ bath niches, continued to maintain its upward trajectory through midyear, with gradual, steady growth foreseen into the near future, housing analysts said last month. Among the key statis- tics and forecasts released in recent weeks by government agencies, research firms and indus- try-related trade associations were the following: HOUSING STARTS & NEW-HOME SALES The latest figures regarding nationwide hous- ing starts are consistent with forecasts for a gradual though steady recovery in the hous- ing market," National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz said last month. "Single-family production should con- tinue to strengthen throughout the year, buoyed by job growth, new household formations and low mortgage interest rates," Dietz comment- ed. Single-family housing starts were pacing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 778,000 units through midyear, while multi-family production was pacing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000 units, according to the Washington, DC-based NAHB. EXISTING-HOME SALES Boosted by a greater share of sales to first- time buyers not seen in nearly four years, existing-home sales maintained their upward trajectory through midyear, although it remains uncertain if the current sales pace can further accelerate, since record-high stock prices, near-record low mortgage rates and solid job gains are counterbalanced by a dearth of homes for sale and rising home prices, the National Association of Realtors said last month. According to the Washington, DC-based NAR, the share of first-time buyers in June was 33%, the highest level since July of 2012. The increase in sales to first-time buyers can be attributed to mortgage rates that are near all- time lows, "and perhaps a hopeful indication that more affordable, lower-priced homes are beginning to make their way onto the market," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun observed. CABINET & VANITY SALES Sales of kitchen cabinets and vanities continued their 2016 upward trajectory, gaining ground again in June compared to the same month in 2015, the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association said last month. According to the Reston, VA-based KCMA, manufacturers participating in the "Trend of Business" survey reported that June sales of cabinets and vanities rose 6.1% over June of 2015. Sales of stock cab- inets gained 2.9%, while semi-custom cabinet sales increased 9.4% and custom cabinet sales rose 6.0%, the KCMA said. Year-to-date sales for the first six months of 2016 were up 6.6% over sales for January-June of last year. APPLIANCE SHIPMENTS Domestic shipments of major home appliances rose again in June, maintaining an edge over year-to-date shipments during the previous year, according to the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers. The Washington, DC-based AHAM reported last month that June appliance shipments totaled 8.13 million units, up 5.7% from the 7.69 million units shipped during the same month in 2015. Year-to-date shipments for the first six months of 2016 were up 2.1% compared to January-June shipments in 2015, AHAM reported. Residential Remodeling Activity Seen Accelerating in Next Year CAMBRIDGE, MA — Homeowner remodeling ac- tivity over the coming year is projected to acceler- ate, keeping the rate of growth above its long-term trend, according to the latest figures from the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The Joint Center's latest "Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity" (LIRA) projects that growth in home improvement and repair expenditures will reach 8% by the start of 2017, well in excess of its 4.9% historical average (see related graph above). "A healthier housing market, with rising house prices and increased sales activity, should translate into bigger gains for remod- eling this year and next," said Chris Herbert, managing director of the Cambridge, MA-based Joint Center. "As more homeowners are enticed to list their properties, we can expect increased remodeling and repair in preparation for sales, coupled with spending by the new owners who are looking to customize their homes to fit their needs," Herbert said. "By the middle of next year, the national re- modeling market should be very close to a full re- covery from its worst downturn on record," added research analyst Abbe Will. "Annual spending is set to reach $321 billion by then – which, after adjusting for inflation, is just shy of the previous p eak set in 2006 b efore the housing crash." Market Maintains Upward Trajectory Homeowner remodeling activity over the coming year is projected to accelerate from current levels – and well in excess of its 4.9% historical average – with annual expenditures for homeowner improvements and repairs forecast to reach nearly $321 billion by the second quarter of 2017, just shy of the previous peak set in 2006, prior to the housing crash (see related story below). Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University LEADING INDICATOR OF RESIDENTIAL REMODELING ACTIVITY Homeowner Improvements & Repairs in Billions, With Four-Quarter Moving Rate of Change $277.2 $281.4 $285.2 $285.7 $291.2 $297.3 $302.9 $307.7 $314.5 $320.8 2015-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 (projected) Q4 (projected) Q4 2016-Q1 Q2 (projected) 2017-Q1 (projected) 7.9% 7.0% 5.9% 4.8% 5.1% 5.7% 6.2% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 10 Kitchen & Bath Design News • September 2016 BAROMETERS A LOOK AT KEY STATISTICS & TRENDS SHAPING THE INDUSTRY MARKET ANALYSIS