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Barometers { A look at key statistics & trends shaping the industry } Pace Quickens For 2013 Housing Recovery K ey indicators a re pointing to a gradually quickening pace for housing, as the market makes a slow and steady climb in 2013 from the worst downturn in a generation. Among the key statistics and forecasts released in recent weeks by government agencies, research prms and industry-related trade associations were the following: HOUSING STARTS Late-year 2012 housing starts were putting the market on track for a 25% improvement in building production for the full year, while the rate of building-permit issuance ���is indicative of the continued, modest growth that we expect to see in new-home construction through 2013,��� the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders said last month. According to David Crowe, chief economist for the Washington, DC-based NAHB, recent housing start pgures ���reqect���a sustainable level of production through 2013,��� while permits rose to their highest level of issuance in more than four years. ���Many builders have reported improving conditions in their local housing markets and are increasingly optimistic about the spring buying season, but they are being very careful not to get ahead of demand,��� said NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg, cautioning that tight credit conditions ���are still the chief obstacle to a quicker recovery.��� EXISTING-HOME SALES The market for existing-home sales is exhibiting ���healthy demand,��� as momentum continues to build from an improving employment picture and strengthening household formation, according to the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. Lawrence Yun of the Washington, DC-based NAR said last month that lower rental vacancy rates and rising rents, combined with historically favorable affordability conditions, are sparking growth in re- OUTLOOK FOR CRITICAL HOUSING INDICATORS IN 2013-���14 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES IN THOUSANDS OF UNITS Housing Starts Existing-Home Sales 4,260 4,688 5,084 5,396 New Single-Family Sales Upward trends in recent months among a number of key housing indicators point to a slow and steady growth in the nation���s housing market this year and next, although challenges still remain. As reqected in the graph at left, gains are being projected for both home sales ��� an indicator of future remodeling activity ��� and housing starts. 612 775 1,105 1,361 301 365 533 736 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: National Association of Realtors sales. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was up 10.1% in November from the same month in 2011. It was the ninth consecutive monthly year-over-year price gain ��� something that last occurred from September 2005 to May 2006, the NAR said. Pending home sales also rose in November for the third straight month, reaching the highest level in two-and-a-half years, the NAR added. compared to 2011, according to the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers. AHAM reported last month that 2012 appliance shipments totaled 60.73 million units, down 0.2% from the 60.88 million units shipped in 2011. December 2012 shipments, pegged at 5.2 million units, posted a 0.6% gain over appliance shipments in December 2011, the Washington, DC-based AHAM said. APPLIANCE SHIPMENTS CABINET & VANITY SALES Sales of kitchen cabinets and vanities rose sharply in November 2012, compared to the same month in 2011, according to the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association. According to the Reston, VA-based KCMA, manufacturers participating in the association���s monthly ���Trend of Business��� survey reported that overall cabinet sales gained 15% in November 2012, compared to November of 2011. Sales of stock cabinets rose 21.7%, while semi-custom sales gained 9.9% and custom cabinet sales increased 7.9%, the KCMA reported. Year-todate sales through November 2012 posted an increase of 6.5%, the trade association added. Washington, DC ��� Upward trends among key housing indicators point to a slow and steady growth in the nation���s housing market in 2013, although several challenges remain, according to the latest housing forecast by David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. ���C on si s tent , p o sit i ve reports on housing starts, permits, prices, new-home sales and builder conpdence in recent months provide further conprmation that a gradual but steady housing recovery is underway across much of the nation,��� said Crowe. ���However, stubbornly tight lending standards for home buyers and builders, inaccurate appraisals and proposals by policymakers to tamper with the mortgage interest deduction could dampen future housing demand.��� Stating there is no consistent national trend, Crowe noted the housing recovery is local ��� but spreading. ���We are transitioning from a very low demand level to a case where supply will start being the problem,��� he said. ���As we begin to build more homes to address that supply, the new home stock will be a much more important element of the recovery.��� Crowe obser ved t hat the number of improving housing markets across the nation continues to show considerable advancement. Another factor spurring the recovery, he said, is that household formations are on the rise. ���We���re not up to normal, but this is adding to demand for housing,��� Crowe stated, adding that ���as new households form at a growing rate, so, too, does builder conpdence.��� Domestic shipments of major home appliances were down marginally in 2012 MARKET ANALYSIS Upward Trends Pointing in 2013 To Slow, Steady Housing Growth 8 | Kitchen & Bath Design News February 2013