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FORECASTS FOR RESIDENTIAL construction and remodeling remained for the most part upbeat, even in the face of a slowdown in housing starts and existing-home sales as 2015 came to a close (see related Forecast 2016, Page 70). Among the key statistics and forecasts released in recent weeks by government agen- cies, research frms and industry-related trade associations were the following: HOUSING STARTS The fact that permits are rising, even in the face of a recent production decline, is "consistent with builders' continued optimism" in the housing market, the National Association of Home Builders said last month. While housing starts dipped, according to the latest fgures, they've nevertheless remained above the one-million mark for seven consecutive months, the longest streak in nearly seven years, the Washington, DC- based NAHB pointed out. "With permits ticking upward, we expect to see the housing market continue to grow at a modest pace," NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said, adding that 2015 new-home sales are running 15.7% ahead of 2014. "With a frming job market, afordable home pric- es, and rising demand…the housing market con- tinues to move on a modest upward trajectory." EXISTING-HOME SALES As long as solid job creation continues, a grad- ual easing of credit standards – even in the face of moderately higher mortgage rates – should support steady demand and existing-home sales to rise above a year ago, according to the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (see related story, below). Despite a recent decline, resales – pegged at an annu- alized rate of 5.16 million – are 3.9% above a year ago, said Lawrence Yun of the Washington, DC-based NAR. Yun said that a sales cool-down was likely, given a recent pullback in contract signings. "New and existing-home supply has struggled to improve so far this fall, leading to few choices for buyers and no easement of the ongoing afordability concerns still prevalent in some markets," he added. CABINET & VANITY SALES Sales of kitchen cabinets and vanities rose for the 45th consecutive month in October, posting solid gains compared to sales for the same month in 2014, the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association said. According to the Reston, VA-based KCMA, manufacturers participating in the association's "Trend of Business" survey reported that October sales of cabinets and vanities rose 5.7 % over October of 2014. Sales of stock cabinets gained 9.3%, while semi-custom cabinet sales rose 1.9% and custom cabinet sales increased 10.5%, the KCMA said. Year-to-date sales through October were up 8.0% compared to the same 10-month period last year, with sales gains posted across the entire spectrum of the industry, the KCMA noted. Survey participants include stock, semi-custom and custom manufacturers whose combined sales represent approximately 70% of the fragmented U.S. kitchen cabinet and bath vanity market, according to the KCMA. Job Growth Fuels Existing-Home Sales Throughout 2015 SAN DIEGO, CA — The continued strength- ening of several local job markets fuels the improved demand for buying that has now pushed existing-home sales above a fve-million sales pace for eight consecutive months, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said last month. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Washington, DC-based NAR, presented his 2016 economic outlook and housing forecast earlier last month at the 2015 Realtors' Conference & Expo here. With demand ex- pected to remain stable through the fnal two months of 2015, Yun forecasted existing-home sales to fnish the year at a pace of 5.30 million, the highest since 2006. Although further expansion in exist- ing-home sales is expected in 2016, ongoing inventory shortages and affordability pres- sures from rising prices and mortgage rates will likely temper sales growth to around 3% (5.45 million) in 2016, Yun said (see related graph, above). Home prices are expected to moderate from a 6% gain in 2015 to 5% in 2016, Yun added. "Unless sizeable supply gains occur for new and existing homes, prices and rents will con- tinue to exceed wages into next year and ham- string a large pool of potential buyers trying to buy a home," the economist observed. Forecasts Still Upbeat Despite Slowdown Economic and demographic factors are expected to support continued growth in existing-home sales , which are projected to rise above a year ago, as refected in the graphic above. Source: National Association of Realtors THE CONTINUED GROWTH IN EXISTING-HOME SALES Thousands of Units 5,090 4,940 5,299 5,454 Change vs. Previous Year 9.2% 7.3% 2.9% -2.9% 2013 2014 2015 (projected) 2016 (forecasted) 2013 2014 2015 (projected) 2016 (forecasted) 10 Kitchen & Bath Design News • January 2016 BAROMETERS A LOOK AT KEY STATISTICS & TRENDS SHAPING THE INDUSTRY MARKET ANALYSIS