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Forecast FORECAST FOR NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES THOUSANDS OF UNITS 2009: 442 2010: 471 2011: 434 2012: 537 2013: 629 2014: 825 2015: 1,161 Source: National Association of Home Builders prices," he remarks. Today's contractors are reporting that they are doing more projects each year for the last three or four years, but the size has been smaller. And many kitchen and bath dealers and designers have reported that the majority of their jobs during the downturn were baths. Indeed, bathroom remodeling was down only mildly during the recession, according to industry professionals. One cause of that may simply be the nature of the room. "When bathrooms need to be remodeled, oftentimes it's because there is a leak and water is causing damage," Petrie observes. "If you have to rip out the tub, you have to tear out the wall surround, and probably part of the foor. At that point in time, you've remodeled half of the bathroom, so you just upgrade the rest." K itchens, in genera l, however, are a discretionary item. "If things are not great and you have a kitchen that works, you use that kitchen," remarks Petrie. "What we saw [as we moved into] 2007 and 2008 is that, instead of remodeling the kitchen, if the dishwasher broke, that's what was replaced." While the upper end is expected to come back, it's not expected to return to pre-recession levels. Because fnancing remains difcult to get and housing prices aren't going up the way they once did, households are less inclined to do upper-end projects. In fact, Petrie notes that consumers are relying much more on cash now, which makes budgets much more frm. "The projects that will come back frst will be at the middle of the market, and probably more product by product replacements rather than ripping out the kitchen to the studs and starting over again," Baker stresses. But Jeremy Edwards, lead analyst with marketresearch firm IBISWorld, notes that the home price index is trending upwards – most recently 11.2 percent from Q4 2012 through Q3 2013. And that will translate to people being more willing to invest in their homes, because improving the value of their homes is one of the key drivers of remodeling. DISCRETIONARY MARKETS Though the discretionary market – kitchens, baths, 44 | Kitchen & Bath Design News January 2014 room additions and such – may be slower to come back than other segments, demand is defnitely rising. And, unlike the past few years, many jobs being ordered are not piecemeal and patchwork. "People are looking for full remodels," st resses Petrie, "and are now improving their kitchens for how they use them. This often means redesigning the space, not just upgrading the items. They're not just changing items to upgrade them, people are actually remodeling to improve the space and environment." Among the major drivers for kitchen and bath remodeling in the coming year are some old stand-bys – openstyle kitchens designed for entertaining, energy efficiency and the need for upgrading old, outdated designs and pieces. One of the biggest upand-coming drivers is the increasing interest in agingin-place. As the population ages, there is an increasing need and corresponding demand for homes to be retroftted with items that provide greater functionality, easier access and minimal maintenance. "Aging-in-place is going to be strong, and we need to be able to design for that older generation to be able to meet their needs," notes Petrie. "Ovens that need to be strategically placed so you can get into it from a wheelchair, raised dishwashers, curbless showers and wider doorways are just some of the elements that will be considered for designs." W hile ma ny newly constructed homes take accessibility into account by providing easy-to-reach ap- pliances, more open work areas and wider hallways, many consumers interested in the concept of aging-inplace design do not live in areas where new construction is an option, such as the Northeast and the Midwest. "A large share of 65+ households that want to age in place have very little new construction to accommodate their needs, and live in an area with an older housing stock that's really much more hostile to this population," notes Baker. "These homes tend to be more vertical, have smaller rooms, smaller doorways, smaller hallways, more steps and things like that which can make it difcult." Additional trends will continue to emerge as the next generation steps into its role as homebuyer and remodeler. "This group doesn't want what they grew up with," explains Petrie. This group lives diferently and entertains diferently." One possible trend for this group is their interest in living and cooking a little healthier, observes Petrie. "I have more requests now from this generation for steam ovens than I do microwave ovens." Stay tuned. FORECAST FOR EXISTING-HOME SALES THOUSANDS OF UNITS 2009: 3,868 2010: 3,705 2011: 3,793 2012: 4,130 2013: 4,521 2014: 2015: 4,507 4,660 Source: National Association of Home Builders