Kitchen & Bath Design News

JAN 2015

Kitchen & Bath Design News is the industry's leading business, design and product resource for the kitchen and bath trade.

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74 | Kitchen & Bath Design News January 2015 Forecast 2015 C autious optimism … this much- used catch phrase perfectly captures the 2015 outlook for the kitchen and bath design industry, which seems poised to continue its climb out of the giant hole left by the Great Recession. That's the consensus of economic and industry experts, who point to continued growth in the housing market, an improved jobs picture and a healthier economy as a whole. Experts agree that 2015 should improve on the gains made in the last two years. They also believe it will take some time to return to pre-re- cession levels of home improvement spending. Taken together, they paint a rea- sonably positive outlook for 2015. "The research we've reviewed suggests that, in all likelihood, 2015 will look a lot like 2014 for those of us in the kitchen and bath industry," notes Maria Stapperfenne, president of the National Kitchen & Bath As- sociation for 2015. "Slow, continued growth is what is expected; 2015 is looking promising. I'm guarded, but optimistic." "The housing industry is in the midst of a reasonable recovery," says Kermit Baker, senior research fellow at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. "But it has been a deep hole to dig out of. "There's been a lot of progress, but we have a long way to go," Baker continues. Industry experts are maintaining a positive outlook. They say a major innovation that can drive the indus- try forward is digital technology. The indicators are contained in federal data, which suggest to Baker that housing starts in 2015 could grow dramatically in the coming year. "We'll reach one million hous- ing starts [in 2014], and we could go perhaps as high as 1.7- 1.8 million [in 2015]," he says. "That is well up from the 550,000 housing starts we saw at the heart of the recession." Baker said the improvements are expected to come largely from the single-family homes segment (where more high-end kitchens and baths are seen), rather than in multi-family home construction. Of course, no one in the housing and remodeling segments is expect- ing a return to the boom times prior to 2007 right now. What is clear, however, is that a steady recovery in the industry is taking place. Industry analysts point to the Dow breaking new records in December, similar gains in the broader markets and an improving jobless picture. By Joe Dowd The consensus among economic experts and kitchen and bath dealers and designers is for a brighter fnancial picture in 2015, with cautious optimism for slow continued growth. FORECAST FOR TOTAL HOUSING STARTS (Thousands of Units) 2010 586 2011 612 2012 783 2013 921 2014 1,147 2015 1,700-1,800 Source: National Association of Home Builders

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