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Barometers { A look at key statistics & trends shaping the industry } Housing, Remodeling On Path to Recovery B oth new housing and residential remodeling continue on their paths to sustainable recovery, with growth projected at least through next year and into 2015, analysts are predicting. Among the key statistics and forecasts released in recent weeks by government agencies, research frms and industryrelated trade associations were the following: RESIDENTIAL REMODELING The residential remodeling market continues to improve, with "strong gains" expected for the remainder of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, according to the latest forecast of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. "In the near term, homeowner spending on improvements is expected to see its strongest growth since the height of the housing boom," said Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center. "Existing home sales are still growing at a double- digit pace and rising house prices are helping homeowners rebuild equity lost during the housing crash," Baker said. Joint Center offcials added that the recent soft patch in homebuilding is expected to be refected as slower growth in homei mpr ovement sp end i ng around the middle of next year. However, even with this projected tapering, remodeling activity "should remain at healthy levels," Harvard analysts said. HOUSING STARTS The National Association of Home Builders is forecasting 924,000 total housing starts in 2013, up 18% from 783,000 units last year. The latest forecast of the Wa sh i n g ton , D C - b a s e d NAHB, issued just over a month ago, calls for singlefamily production to rise 17% this year, to 629,000 units, then jump an additional 31% next year to 826,000 and surpass the one million mark in 2015. NAHB is projecting that multi-family starts will increase 20% in 2013, to 296,000 units, and rise an additional 10% to ANTICIPATED ATTENDANCE AT INDUSTRY TRADE SHOWS DEALER/DESIGNER PLANS TO ATTEND TRADE SHOWS IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS 326,000 units next year. Housing nationwide bottomed out at an average of 27% of normal production in early 2009, according to the NAHB. APPLIANCE SHIPMENTS D o m e s t i c s h ip m e nt s of major home applia nce s rose aga i n i n September compared to shipments during the same month in 2012, according to the Association of Home Appliance Ma nufacturers. The Washington, DC-based A H A M repor ted la st month that September appliance shipments totaled 6.04 million units, up 5.7% from the 5.71 million units shipped in September, 2012. Yearto-date shipments were up 3.8% for the frst nine months of 2013, compared to January-September of 2012, AHAM reported. 31% 54% Planning to Attend About the Same Number of Shows Planning to Attend More Shows 15% Planning to Attend Fewer Shows Source: Research Institute for Kitchen & Cooking Intelligence/KBDN Attendance at industry trade shows is likely to increase in 2014, with 31% of dealers and designers surveyed by KBDN and its research partner RICKI saying they're planning to attend more shows in the next 12 months, compared to half that number saying they're planning to attend fewer shows. Sales of kitchen cabinets and vanities continued to post signifcant gains in Septem- ber, rising 27.4% compared to the same month in 2012, the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association said last month. According to the Reston, VA-based KCMA, manufacturers participating in the association's monthly "Trend of Business" survey reported that sales of stock cabinet s ga ined 36.5%, while semi-custom sales rose 21.7% and custom cabinet sales increased 11.8%. Year-to-date sales through September were up 19.4% compared to the same ninemonth period last year, the KCMA reported. Washington, DC — With home prices and household formations rising and household balance sheets healing, the ongoing housing recovery is expected to gain momentum next year, even as several challenges remain, according to economists who participated in the National Association of Home Builders recent Fall 2013 Construction Forecast Webinar. "The cards are in play for a decent and fairly strong recovery in 2014 and part icularly in 2015," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "From the standpoint of GDP growth, housing has been a plus – growing at two, three and four times the rate of the rest of the economy in recent quarters." Helpi ng to spu r t he housing rebound was a double-digit increase in home prices over the past year, driven in part by tight inventories of new and existing homes for sale and gradual gains in employment. "We expect to see price increases moderate in the next few years as we see additional inventory on the market and investors back away as the bargains disappear," said Crowe. Another bright spot, he noted, is rising household formations that were delayed during the downturn as college graduates and young professionals were forced to move back in with their parents or double up as roommates. At the height of the housing boom, the U.S. was producing 1.4 million additional households every year. That fgure plunged to 500,000 during the depth of the recession and is now back up to 700,000, according to the Washington, DC-based NAHB. Meanwhile, households across the nation have been increasing their savings and shedding debt. "They've corrected a lot of excesses and feel more comfortable about moving forward," Crowe confrmed. CABINET & VANITY SALES MARKET ANALYSIS Key Factors Seen Fueling Continued Growth in 2014, '15 8 | Kitchen & Bath Design News December 2013